July 2015
Laissez-faire economics: the next new black? China's credit explosion: enough cement to cover Hawaii. Too much money going where it doesn't belong. Greece: the drama continues. > full report

April 2015
Celebrating our 25th anniversary. Implications of a two-sigma market. The magic of financial engineering.  Spin control on Wall Street. The Fed: transparent, but still incoherent. > full report

January 2015
The Era of Central Bank Omnipotence nears its final chapters. Japan throws a financial Hail Mary. The Japanification of Europe? Currency wars: the early stages.  Commodity prices heading south. > full report

October 2014
The Fed's still got our backs. Looking at the big picture. Europe's back in the spotlight. China's economic juggernaut slows down. Central bankers' hidden agendas. > full report

July 2014
Central banks adding more fuel. Escape velocity: are we there yet? Hubris and the risks of unintended consequences. Will macroprudential supervision protect us? What is seen and what is not seen? > full report

April 2014
It's starting to get a bit frothy. Winding down QE. Master of the mortgage-backeds. Pivotal times for housing. A tale of two consumers. > full report

January 2014
Illusions of a strong economy. The Fed wants more bubble. The downside of stock buybacks. Revival of the Minimax Regret approach. > full report

October 2013
Once in a Lifetime: so how did we get here? Unintended consequences in a jobless recovery. Sequence risks in the 60/40 portfolio. Adjusting to new market structures. > full report

July 2013

What happened last quarter? Japan: it's all-or-nothing. The Fed: a trial ballon shot down. The US economy: still sluggish. What's next for housing?. China: the opaque economy. > full report

April 2013
Monetary expansion: pedal to the metal. Fed policy: it works really well on paper. Financial markets: the great disconnect. > full report

January 2013
The fiscal battles ahead: who blinks first? The economy: another wobby oscillation? Central bankers gone wild. Bonds: the end of an era. > full report

October 2012
Fed policy: a dangerous, untested game. Fiscal slope or fiscal abyss? Adapting to a different financial landscape. Why financial planning will become more important than ever. > full report

July 2012

Europe: a sophisticated game of chicken. Spain: the situation worsens. The US economy: from escape-velocity to stall-speed. Central bank policy: reaching its limits. > full report

April 2012
Jobs growth slowing? Housing sector: clearing the inventory. Europe back in the headlines. Fiscal challenges ahead. > full report

January 2012
How the Euro debt mess got started. Toxic assets: the second wave. No crisis, no action. China’s landing: soft or hard? More stall and delay, no shock and awe. Update on the ECRI recession call. > full report

October 2011
Looking back at the bubble years. The refi boom years. Nearing the top of the rollercoaster.  Putting out the fire. The costs of pain avoidance. The ECRI recession call. Occupy Washington DC, not Wall Street. Problems under the stock market’s hood? > full report

July 2011
People see necessity only in crisis. Sustained recovery in doubt. Housing: affordable but not accessible. Euro debt: who takes the hit? Investing with interest-rate goggles. The potential opportunity in municipal bonds. > full report

April 2011:

The financial markets are like a Hostess Twinkie. Is this another bubble? Corporate America is making the right moves. Housing: the forgotten crisis. Why the economic recovery is so weak. Washington DC: the circus never leaves town. Respect people you owe money to. It takes a crisis. > full report

January 2011:
Sovereign debt: we're still in a bubble economy. Why the currency you're investing in matters. The economy on life support. What's really missing: final demand. The private sector is just acting rationally. There's an economic battle going on. The Fed's risk-asset ploy. Reality hits hard at cities and states. > full report

October 2010:
The economy: flying on one engine and just above stall speed. Please, no more fancy solutions that don't work. The bleak outlook for jobs. Growing problems in the foreclosure pipeline. Fannie-Freddie's money pit: how much will taxpayers end up paying? The latest round of quantitative wheezing. > full report

July 2010:
The pieces of the puzzle that matter. Look at what bonds are telling you. This is not what a recovering economy is supposed to look like. Corporate America's fortress mentality. Why consumer spending depends upon animal spirits. Talk about a coming bond market crash: oh, really? > full report

April 2010:
Financial space shuttles need lots of stimulus. Can the economy reach escape velocity? Measuring the unemployment crisis. Keeping an eye on delinquency trends. Municipalities get creative in order to survive. full report

February 2010:
Housing: the overhang hangover. They've nationalized the housing market: Fannie-Freddie's covert bank bailout. The coming FHA bailout. Strategic defaults: near a tipping point? Coming up: the most difficult bailout yet. The Greg House approach: "we all make mistakes and we all pay a price." > full report

October 2009:

More debt, anyone? Cash-for-clunkers and homebuyer credits: more ways to waste taxpayer money. Big banks are rolling our dice. Wall Street's faith in a V-shaped economic recovery. Deflation now, stagflation later. The Hope Rally precedent from the Thirties: happy days are here again? > full report

July 2009:
Green shoots and the pieces of the economic puzzle that matter most. The Grand Experiment: government policy's lurch toward socialism. The importance of jobs creation and why the unemployment problem is much worse than it looks. Breaking the feedback loops. An end to consumers' buying binge. > full report

January 2009:
The worst bear market in seventy years. Greed run amok: the historical pattern of speculative booms. Bankers gone wild: the downside of loan applications with blank income statements. Cleaning up the financial sludge. Why home prices must go lower. Bailout Nation: monetizing the problems. > full report

November 2008:

The financial crisis: now in the seventh inning? The magnitude of the meltdown. And now, the economic fallout. Fog and clarity. Opportunities on the other side of the cycle. The silver lining. > full report

July 2006:
The Fed at a crossroads. Inflation: cyclical, but not secular. The importance of the housing market. ARMS: shock and awe. Are consumers stressed out or still-resilient? A few strategy notes. > full report

January 2006:
Greenspan's parting remarks. The Fed tries to deal with "Mr. Home-Price Bubble". Lenders gone wild? Measuring the bubble: consumers gone wild? The global backdrop: Bretton Woods II. Key trends in the stock market. > full report

January 2005:
Another Santa Claus rally. Where's the corporate confidence? The US as a debtor nation: like a kid with a new credit card. China as enabler. Personal debt at record highs; nonexistent savings rate. Is the high-yield party over? > full report

January 2004:
The question of sustainability. Will consumers pass the baton to big business? Mixed signals on the jobless recovery. The "money for everybody" reelection campaign. The impact of post-election housecleaning. The tech stock recovery: what it needs now. Close your eyes and think of 1999. > full report

July 2003:
Have we been down this road before? Do jobs matter? Corporate America: wary, but getting meaner and leaner. Consumers and the home ATM effect. Could housing prices weaken? Yahoo, the techs are back. > full report

January 2002:
Still in a bubble? Bull-market valuations in a bear market. Thoughts on the double-dip scenario: a rocky road ahead? The refi boom's contribution to recreational spending. Housing: the last asset class standing? The Fed controls the economy's trim tabs, but not the rudder. > full report

July 2001:
Human nature is the only constant. In the wake of April's bear market rally: bulls look across the valley. The Fed's treadmill scenario. Consumer spending as swing factor: the coming decline in recreational shopping. Market valuation and the Cisco Systems case study: Part II. > full report

January 2001:

The unraveling of 1999: other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? The big disconnect between valuations and economic reality. The next big test for tech stocks. Recessions do happen: what to watch in the economy. The Von Mises perspective: have Greenspan and his colleagues screwed up? Why "buy-and-hold" can be a dangerous mantra. > full report

July 2000:
Eye of the storm or pause that refreshes? Cisco Systems: a valuation case study of what’s needed to make investors happy in the next ten years. Warren Buffett and the brutal dot-com shakedown. The coming demise of the speculation mindset. The Twenties parallel: real or rhetoric? > full report

January 2000:

Index distortion and the history of narrow markets: what really happened in the 1999 bull market. Is portfolio diversification a colossal waste of opportunities? Some amazing but true facts about today’s sky-high market valuations. Hindsight bias and the psychology of investing in a bull market. > full report

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